Scenarios under which Obama will damn near be guaranteed another term:
- Likely: Tina Fey or Boss Hog get the GOP nomination.
- Unlikely: Unemployment touches 7% or lower by the month prior.
Scenarios under which Obama has no chance in hell of re-election:
- Likely: Economy still sucks so bad that 8% unemployment would be an improvement.
- Very, VERY unlikely: Following a high-profile string of continued fed raids on medical pot, the GOP opponent is this guy.
And that’s it.